耿 瑞1，周 状1，岳冬冬2，赵 蕾1，刘龙腾1
（1 中国水产科学研究院，北京 100141；
2 中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所，农业部东海与远洋渔业资源开发利用重点实验室，上海 200090）

摘要：淡水池塘养殖是我国水产养殖业的重要组成部分，其投入产出效益关系一直备受关注。在对10个省份淡水池塘养殖投入产出数据调研的基础上，分析了产出与投入之间的关系，得出结论：（1）典型相关分析发现，淡水池塘养殖产出与投入第一对典型相关变量的相关系数达到强相关水平，值为0.9613，其中，反映产出的典型变量主要由成鱼收入决定，反映投入的典型变量主要由饲料和苗种费用决定；（2）样本区域淡水池塘养殖产出投入比值介于0.76 ~1.65之间，效益相差较大，其中浙江最高、辽宁最低。建议通过加大中低产池塘标准化改造力度、构建生态养殖模式及提高养殖合作组织化程度等措施，促进实现我国淡水池塘养殖可持续发展目标。

关键词：淡水池塘养殖；投入产出；典型相关分析

Input-output analysis and development strategies of freshwater pond aquaculture in China
GENG Rui1，ZHOU Zhuang1，YUE Dongdong2，ZHAO Lei1，LIU Longteng1
（1 Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences，Beijing 100141，China;
2 Key Laboratory of East China Sea and Oceanic Fishery Resources Exploitation，Ministry of Agriculture；
East China Sea Fishery Research Institute，Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences，Shanghai 200090，China）

Abstract: Freshwater pond aquaculture is an important component of aquaculture system, and its input-output efficiency has always been a subject of concern. Based on the survey data of freshwater pond culture collected from 10 provinces, this paper analyzed the canonical correlation between input and output of freshwater pond aquaculture, coming to two main conclusions: (1) the correlation coefficient between output and input of freshwater ponds is 0.9613; (2) the efficiency is quite different among these 10 provinces, and the output-input ratio ranged from 0.76 to 1.65, with Zhejiang Province being the highest and Liaoning Province the lowest. Finally, some countermeasures have been proposed to promote sustainable development of freshwater pond aquaculture, including putting more efforts to the transformation and standardization of low-yielding ponds, constructing ecological farming model, enhancing the organization level of freshwater pond cooperatives, etc...

Key words: freshwater ponds; input-output; canonical correlation analysis